🔗 Share this article

It was eight weeks in the past that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the reason for the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.